Will the World End on November 13, 2026?
The short answer
No. The date comes from a real paper in the journal Science, published in 1960. Its equation sent world population to infinity at the year 2026.87, which is mid November 2026. For about thirty years real population ran ahead of that curve. Then families got smaller, and the curve broke.
The UN now expects world population to peak near 10.3 billion in the 2080s, then shrink. A peak is the opposite of infinity.
How the doomsday equation worked
Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot fitted a curve to 24 estimates of world population. Their paper ran in Science in 1960 as "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026."
The idea behind it is simple. More people make more people, faster. A curve like that has no ceiling. Each step closer to the year 2026.87 adds people faster than the step before, and at 2026.87 the curve shoots to infinity. 0.87 of a year is about 318 days in, which is mid November.
Ahead of schedule, then not
At first the curve held up. For about thirty years after 1960, real population ran ahead of it, not behind it. In 1987 a letter in Science was titled "World Population: Still Ahead of Schedule."
What broke the trick was family size. In 1960 the average mother had about five children. Today the world average is a little over two, about half as many. The equation only works if growth keeps speeding up. Smaller families meant the doubling stopped speeding up, and the curve stopped describing the world. Growth slowed instead of racing toward infinity.
Key numbers
| What | Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Doomsday date in the 1960 paper's title | Friday, November 13, 2026 | von Foerster, Mora & Amiot, Science, 1960 |
| Year the equation goes to infinity | 2026.87 | Umpleby, Science letter, 1987 |
| Where 0.87 of a year falls | about 318 days in (0.87 × 365), mid November | Our arithmetic from Umpleby, Science letter, 1987 |
| World population estimates the curve was fitted to | 24 | von Foerster, Mora & Amiot, Science, 1960 |
| Children per woman, world average, around 1960 | about 5 | Our World in Data (Roser), 2019 |
| Children per woman, world average, today | a little over 2, about half the 1960 level | Our World in Data (Roser), 2019 |
| Projected peak of world population | about 10.3 billion, in the 2080s | UN World Population Prospects 2024 |
What the film simplifies
- The paper had three authors: Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot. The film shows only von Foerster.
- The film rounds the projected peak to "near ten billion." The UN figure is about 10.3 billion.
- "Five kids per mother, down to two" is rounded. The world average today is a little over two.
- The film gives one cause for the slowdown, smaller families, and does not go into why families got smaller.
- The ending jokes that he put doomsday on his own birthday. The equation pointed to mid November 2026, and the paper never gives his birthday as the reason for the exact day.
- The stage show, the top hat, the rabbit, the rope curve and Rocket's tickets are cartoon.
At a glance
Runtime 1 minute 4 seconds · Topics: Population growth, Fertility, Math models, History of science · Captions on YouTube · Full script below
Test yourself
Why did the 1960 equation give a date at all?
Answer
It assumed more people make more people, faster, so growth keeps speeding up. Followed forward, that curve has no ceiling and reaches infinity at the year 2026.87, which is mid November 2026.
The equation's year was 2026.87. About how many days into the year is 0.87 of a year, and which month is that?
Answer
About 318 days, since 0.87 × 365 is about 318. That lands in mid November.
What changed that broke the curve?
Answer
Families got smaller. The world average fell from about five children per mother in 1960 to a little over two today, so growth slowed instead of speeding up.
The script
Heinz: Doomsday is this Friday!
Rocket: Front row! End of the world! No refunds!
Heinz: The journal Science printed the date in 1960: November 13, 2026.
Rocket: Says who?
Heinz: A physicist!
Heinz: My trick? More people make more people, faster!
Heinz: One billion to two took 123 years. Two to four? Forty seven.
Heinz: Follow the curve, and this Friday, humans hit infinity!
Heinz: Our great great grandchildren will not starve to death. They will be squeezed to death!
Rocket: Price just went up!
Heinz: For thirty years, humanity ran AHEAD of my curve!
Heinz: Then the trick broke. Four billion to eight took forty eight.
Rocket: Who's wrecking my doomsday?
Heinz: Everybody! Families shrank. Five kids per mother, down to two.
Heinz: It peaks near ten billion in the 2080s, then shrinks.
Heinz: Doomsday's off! Friday is my 115th birthday!
Rocket: You put doomsday on your BIRTHDAY?
Heinz: A magician never tells.
Rocket: Refunds on Saturday!
Sources
- The 1960 paper "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026" by von Foerster, Mora and Amiot, fitted to 24 population estimates.von Foerster, Mora & Amiot, Science, 1960
- The doomsday equation reaches infinity at the year 2026.87; in 1987 world population was still ahead of the curve.Umpleby, Science letter, 1987
- In 1975 world population was running ahead of the doomsday equation.Serrin, Science letter, 1975
- World population projected to peak near 10.3 billion in the 2080s.UN World Population Prospects 2024
- Global fertility was around five children per woman up to the mid 1960s and has since halved.Our World in Data (Roser), 2019